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Modelling Covid-19 and targeting the Boat Race

  • 06 January 2022
  • 4 minutes

With so much to fit into the day, working on Covid-19 research and training for the 2022 Boat Race, it is a good job Dan Toy (Engineering 2016) likes to awake early.

Dan read Chemical Engineering for his undergraduate degree and is in his sixth year at 91直播, working on his PhD in fluid mechanics. At present, he is focused on the application of reduced order modelling to describe complex fluid flows, with Covid-19 the present framework, as Dan explains.

鈥淲hat I鈥檓 interested in is the transportation of Coronavirus from the moment it leaves a person to the moment it鈥檚 breathed in by someone else,鈥 he says.

鈥淭here鈥檚 quite a nice way to put together a framework for modelling the risk 鈥 the infected person, the transportation and the person inhaling 鈥 and you can multiply those factors together and then break the problem down.鈥

Dan uses relatively simple models, rather than computational fluid dynamics, in order to gain insight into the underlying physics of the problem.

鈥淭he way I work means you don鈥檛 just have this black box where you lose a lot of the physical intuition of what鈥檚 going on in the building,鈥 he says.

鈥淲hat I鈥檓 looking at is a system where we have a source of heat in a room and some openings to the outdoors, and I want to compare the actual risk to the inhabitants to the risk if we assumed the room is well mixed.鈥

The live nature of the pandemic means time is of the essence for Dan, whose PhD is supervised by Professor Andy Woods in the Department of Earth Sciences, and the academic article currently in preparation will be accompanied by more accessible offerings for a wider audience.

He adds: 鈥淵ou could spend an entire PhD on this one particular problem, tick every box there is to tick and publish the thesis, but with a problem like this you鈥檝e missed the moment 鈥 it鈥檚 about doing something which is useful and helpful, but could still leave some open questions.鈥

Not seeing something through to completion is possibly an unusual approach for Dan, who, as he says himself, is highly competitive. His competitive drive manifests itself through sport, primarily.

Already a Half Blue in swimming and judo, Dan is now targeting honours in rowing with Cambridge University Boat Club.

Living with George Hawkswell (Engineering 2014), another current CUBC trialist, in a lockdown which rendered judo impossible saw Dan try the erg rowing machine. When restrictions eased, Dan also rowed with Ben Dyer (Engineering PhD 2017, Blue Boat 2021) and Harry Harland (Law PhD 2017) in the gardens of their postgraduate accommodation before taking to The Cam with 91直播 Boat Club.

鈥淚鈥檓 an unknown quantity. I started relatively recently,鈥 he says.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 have the pedigree that a lot of the other guys have, but if you look at my trajectory, it鈥檚 going up steeply.

鈥淭he question is if I am going to continue on this trajectory, and I don鈥檛 know at the moment exactly where I鈥檒l end up.鈥

Dan Toy in the stroke seat in a coxless four (photo: Nordin Catic)

His swimming background means early morning training has not been an issue, and his competitive instinct has seen him to thrive.

He adds: 鈥淚鈥檝e always been a get up and go person. The early mornings are my most productive time. I鈥檓 quite happy to go off to Ely (with CUBC) in the mornings.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not that I thought I鈥檇 be good at rowing, but I knew I鈥檇 have the drive to get better and better week on week. Every time I looked at the person next to me or the person who had just gone ever so slightly faster than I had the previous week, I thought 鈥榥ext week I鈥檓 going to get you鈥 and next week I鈥檓 going to get you鈥.鈥

It is the speed of his rise to be in contention for a spot in a Cambridge boat which is remarkable. Dan competed on the Tideway last month in the Trial Eights, racing in the lightweights.

鈥淧eople that know me wouldn鈥檛 be surprised; I was surprised it happened so quickly, but I was never going to do this by halves,鈥 he says.

鈥淥n my best day there鈥檚 no reason why I couldn鈥檛 be in that boat. The trouble is I鈥檓 not as consistent as the people that have been doing it for a lot longer.

鈥淲hen you鈥檝e got one day to race, it鈥檚 how much you can back a novice to come in and do it. It鈥檒l come down to how much I can keep progressing. The ultimate goal is to get into the fastest boat I can and race and beat Oxford.

鈥淲hether that happens this year or I have to wait a little bit longer for my moment remains to be seen. It鈥檚 a step up from anything I鈥檝e really done before.鈥

Main photo: Nordin Catic

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